Deven Ghelani, Director and Founder of Policy in Practice, delivered this presentation at the ERSA Employment Support London meeting on 22 February 2018.
In it he answers three questions employment related questions using findings from recent analysis on low income Londoners carried out by Policy in Practice, funded by Trust for London.
The questions were:
1. What are the biggest barriers to work in London?
2. What impact are welfare reforms having on employment outcomes?
3. Self employment is a popular choice in London; how will Universal Credit impact this group?
For more information about Policy in Practice's work please email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk.
2. We work with Work and
Health primes, and other
support providers across the
UK to deliver benefit,
budgeting and support in a
single system
We were founded to make
the welfare system simple for
people to understand
About Policy in Practice
6. Three employment related questions …
1. What are the biggest barriers to work in London?
2. What impact are welfare reforms having on employment outcomes?
3. Self-employment is a popular choice in London, how is Universal Credit
going to impact this group?
7. Disability is the biggest barrier
Number of
households
initially not in work
Percentage of
households who
moved into work
Total 243,865 8.2%
Single 148,367 (60.8%) 4.5%
Couple 10,086 (4.1%) 6.0%
Lone parent 67,662 (27.7%) 13.8%
Couple with
children 17,750 (7.3%) 18.9%
Carer 9,334 (3.8%) 3.6%
Lone parent 67,662 (27.7%) 13.6%
Disabled 99,580 (40.8%) 1.5%
No barriers 67,289 (27.6%) 13.1%
Income Support 42,966 (17.6%) 6.3%
Employment
Support 94,645 (38.8%) 1.6%
Job Seeker
Allowance 37,226 (15.3%) 16.6%
Not in receipt of
out-of-work
benefit 37,096 (15.2%) 19.6%
Unknown 31,932 (13.1%) 7.1%
Household composition
Barriers to work
Type of out-of-work benefit
• Families with children are most likely
to move into work
• Disabled households show lowest
likelihood
• Only 1.5% of workless households
with disability moved into work
between Jan 2016 and Jan 2017
• Households not claiming an out-of-
work benefit more likely to move into
work than households claiming
Jobseekers Allowance
9. 8,828 households currently affected
• Average reduction in their
housing benefit is £60.07
per week
• 61.7% are lone parents
• 12.7% are in work
• Importance of
benchmarking and co-
ordinating activities at
regional/city levels
12. Benefit cap gets people into work
Sampling technique:
1. Treatment group: all households with income from benefit above the
£23,000 threshold as of April 2016.
2. Control group: all households with income from benefit close to the benefit
cap threshold.
• Exempted households excluded from the cohort
Analysis:
• Comparing differences in the employment outcomes across the two groups
in the months before and after the lowering of the cap
• Households subject to the benefit cap showed a 3.5% higher rate of
movement into employment than families in the control group
14. 10% of working age households on low
income are self-employed
Average % change
in earnings
↑ 7.9%
↑ 4.3%
Self-employed average earnings £672.47 vs £840.79 of other households in
employment
15. Self-employment & UC: Minimum Income Floor
• An assumed level of earnings for self-
employed people with the conditionality
rules applied
• If actual self-employed earnings fall below
this, UC calculated assuming this amount is
being earned
• Applies after 12 months of self-employment
Borough UC roll out
Southwark Applicable
H&F Applicable
Enfield Applicable
Tower Hamlets Applicable
Sutton Applicable
Croydon Applicable
Lambeth Dec-17
B&D Mar-18
Ealing Mar-18
Waltham Forest May-18
Barnet May-18
Islington Jun-18
Harrow Jul-18
Haringey Oct-18
Hackney Oct-18
Greenwich Oct-18
Brent Nov-18
K&C Dec-18
Camden Dec-18
16. Will people move onto gainful employment, or
choose not to work at all?
£2,233
• Self-employed among
the worst affected
group as UC rollout
• Those not affected
are in the grace
period
• Awareness is key!
• Solutions are
possible!
71% of self-employed people are £340 per month worse off under UC
17. Use of administrative data is
essential for designing and
delivering effective social
policies
Tracking households over
time allows us to track the
effectiveness of interventions
It allows us to answer a
different set of questions.
Ask a different set of questions…
18. 181818
This analysis can help identify
households eligible for Work and
Health support programmes
This data can be used to quickly and
objectively track the effectiveness of
your interventions across London
19. Join our webinar
Support disabled job seekers on their journey into work
Wed 21 March at 10:30 to 11:30
Learn how frontline advisors are helping disabled job seekers understand
benefit changes as Universal Credit changes roll out.
With guest speaker, Marise Mackie, Pluss.
More details and register here
20. 202020
We’re supporting London councils and
Work and Health primes in the delivery
of their programmes
How can we help you?
Deven Ghelani
deven@policyinpractice.co.uk
07863 560677
0330 088 9242
Editor's Notes
One big data store – Query across London - Scalable
Different policy scenarios – Universal Credit
Benchmarking – See what’s working, and where the impacts are
Longitudinal - Tie Cause and effect
Governments may know how one policy affects many people. We can show how all policies combined affect one person. We make the welfare system simple to understand so people can make decisions that are right for them.
October @ £26k
Self-employed households: Average monthly reported earnings went up slightly, from £641.93 to £669.72 (+4.3%)
Employed households: Average monthly reported earnings went more significantly, from £762.52 to £822.52 (+7.9%)